John Zechner, chairman, J. Zechner Associates
John Zechner, chairman, J. Zechner Associates
SHOPPERS DRUG MART (TSE:SC): we do not own it anymore, sold around $50..been a really good story, I just uncomfortable with multiple now..I think we are at tail-end of growth, also a leery of change in senior management, we caught up to US valuation, also Wal-Mart coming in, pricing pressures
POWER FINANCIAL (TSE:PWF): good defensive positions..non-cyclical industries to a degree..Putanm acquisition somewhat riskier but better return than cash..you are trading at NAV right now, holding companies typically do not trade at premium to NAV..
CIBC (TSE:CM): I like CIBC relative to other banks, looks like they had earnings recovery..on operating basis they are doing much better than they have..having said that there are risks to the banks because loan losses low..even wealth management doing well for the banks..IPOs for income trusts will be gone, energy financing could disappear..we have been lightening up on bank positions
LOBLAW (TSE:L): I think you are right to be concerned about Wal-Mart..look back at Zellers, they were decimated..Loblaws going through restructuring right now, everybody wants to buy at bottom..I would be holding back, look for low-$40s as entry price
PAST PICK ANGIOTECH PHARMA (NASDAQ:ANPI TSE:ANP): had been beaten up..paclitaxel coating for stents still decent share of market..worry last year about heart attack risk, dissipated by recent studies..comfortable with decent long-term story but not front-burning story
PFIZER (NYSE:PFE): less bullish than used to be, although at this valuation I thought I would be more bullish..product pipelines squeezed..they had lots of internally-generated products that are running out..they have had to pay up and generic competition..cut 10,000 jobs..business has changed..we have some money in big pharma because of valuations..relatively cheap on that basis
POTASH (NYSE:POT TSE:POT): it is looking expensive given current earnings..having said that, agricultural commodities seem to be in earlier phase..demand for corn has gone through the roof..food demand, processing on top of ethanol, developing new facitilites all the time..but wary of valuation as well..certainly potash fertilizer better than nitrate
BIOVAIL (NYSE:BVF TSE:BVF): we recently sold around $24-25 level after last announcement about cutting distribution..facing generic competition from Wellbutrin..talked about $1.50 dividend..I do not know if Wellbutrin genericized whether they can pay out, plus growth done..our inclination was to take money off the table and look for something else that can grow
ING CANADA (TSE:IIC): valuation got pretty extended relative to group, churning in range for past year..recently we have been adding to position again..they have not done acquisition recently..valuation more reasonable now, would not be uncomfortable adding in low $50s
GENERAL ELECTRIC (NYSE:GE): if you are not looking for 15-20% annual growth rates, I do not think you will be disappointed..great overseas business..problem with GE is it is so big, takes long time to realize impact..value of the asset at GE well in excess of current share price..just not just going to be big mover
TSX GROUP (TSE:X): I do not get the value of these exchanges..when I look at the IPOs, I think these things have great cyclicality..having said that, TSX is less overvalued..I find mid-20s multiple pretty expensive
RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM TSE:RIM): new of last quarter blew through roof, people worried about iPhone in short-term..quite honestly as it goes into low $140s, to the point of buying back..Blackberry still has great market competition..despite Microsoft, Nokia, now Apple, nobody has knocked off RIM..they forged >150 relationships with international carriers..just because Apple announces iPhone, does not mean these guys will drop contracts..RIM tends to beat numbers..I think it is still a good story, keep on adding
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